IRAN AT POLITICAL CROSSROADS!

IRAN has been rocked by agitations since the killing of Mahsa Amini, 22, who was in detention of the morality police enforcing strict hijab norms, in September. These demonstrations have been led by women chanting “Woman, Life, Freedom” and mocking their clerical leaders by publicly burning their hijab and cutting off their hair. They now include participants from all classes and ethnic backgrounds, including workers, business people, sportspersons, and celebrities.

Security forces have responded harshly: by early December, nearly 500 persons had been killed. About 20,000 people have been detained, several have been given death sentences, and two people have already been executed. On December 14, the United Nations Economic and Social Council voted to expel Iran from the UN Commission on the Status of Women.

Persistent popular agitations

The Iran government has defended itself by describing the agitators as terrorists who are using weapons provided by foreign sources.

The ongoing agitations are significant because they are led by some protesting about the disabilities inflicted upon them as part of the Islamic regime’s moral code. But now there is anger not just about the hijab, but about the economic situation and the abridgement of personal rights. Placards carry the slogan, “Death to Khamenei” Iran’s supreme leader and the principal guardian of the Islamic revolution.

The root cause remains the economic situation. As a result of crippling sanctions, millions of middle-class Iranians have dropped down the economic scale.

Damage-control initiatives

The government appears to be bewildered by the persistence of the agitations despite the harsh measures of the security forces. This has led to some efforts at ameliorating the situation with palliatives.

However, there is a deeper problem: Iran’s ‘reformists’ uphold the Islamic order and only advocate the removal of some of the harsher aspects of the Iranian system, particularly those relating to women. They have little in common with Iran’s ‘secular republicans’ who are spearheading the agitations and seeking an end to the influence of religion in state affairs. Heavily influenced by sections of the Iranian diaspora in the west, these ‘secular republicans’ believe that Iran’s population is becoming more liberal.

Given the deep roots of Islam in Iranian society and the support provided to the Islamic order by several institutions created by the constitutions, there is little likelihood of a collapse-slow or dramatic-of this order. The most that can be expected are some small steps towards change, particularly where women are concerned. But the core of the Iranian order, defined by the co-existence of the supreme leader as the guardian of the revolution and a directly elected president, with both espousing resistance to western hegemony, is likely to endure.

LIFESTYLE!TRADITION!PROTECTION!HIJABPROTECTION!